Next Year’s Rotation Predictions?

With the free agent pitching market not looking too great this winter and the Rangers stacked with young arms that are predicted to break through, what will the Rangers rotation look like out of the gate next April?

Unless Laird is packaged with someone (Padilla? Loe? Rheinecker? Tejeda?) in a trade for a significant upgrade in pitching, I believe the Rangers will (and should) let their current arms play and sort themselves out for 2009 and beyond.

Millwood, McCarthy and Gabbard are the only sure bets I see for the rotation. I guess Padilla falls in there too considering his contract and the hope that this season’s performance can be chalked up to injury and a just an off year.

I still think Loe is the new Benoit. And I think he’ll have a great career in the bullpen. That would leave Volquez, Rheinecker, Tejeda and maybe Hurley (seems like I’m forgetting someone) vying for the 5th spot in the rotation.

How do you think it plays out? 

Should the Rangers Sign a Free Agent Pitcher This Winter, or Not?

(View this post at the soon-to-be new home for the Rangers or Robbers blog.)

Similar to early-season views on Torri Hunter, I and many others expected the Rangers sign a Free Agent starting pitcher this next Winter to add to the rotation for 2008. But with the upsides of failing fast now in full effect at the Ballpark, I’m not sure they should.

The earliest the Rangers window for being a true contender will open is 2009. So why not let all the young arms in the Rangers organization get every chance they can with as many innings as possible in the “Bigs” to become winning pitchers for ’09 and beyond?

Millwood and Padilla are the only pitchers (and 2 of only 5 Rangers total) under contract past this season. And, with one of the league’s 5 lowest team salaries after dumping Teixeira, Gagne, Lofton and Mahay’s salaries ($22.2 million annualized), the Rangers certainly have all the flexibility and tons of money available to rebuild their rotation and fill holes in their lineup and bench.

But the Rangers also have a large collection of highly touted prospect young arms. While I’m not at all confident in the Rangers’ ability to turn prospects into winning major league starters, the law of averages has to kick in sometime. Doesn’t it? I mean, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every so often.

So would it be better for the Rangers to let the remaining 3 spots in their rotation be filled by those prospects, instead of filling one with a free agent signing?  (Of course, Millwood and Padilla’s seasons make them less than surefire long-term locks for any rotation and they could be traded away, but that’s a discussion for another time.)

I include McCarthy and Gabbard on the Rangers’ prospects list, as they still haven’t completed a successful transition to the majors and are not bona fide winning starters. Then there’s Tejeda, Loe and Wood who’ve had plenty of chances to get some traction already (not to mention Rheinecker and Koronka – who’re about out of chances). Are they worth more time in the rotation to see what could happen? Or are they meant for the bullpen? And then there’s Volquez, Hurley, Rupe, Harrison, Galarraga and Mendoza coming up from the minors.

That’s at least 13 pitchers who are touted to have various levels of major league potential. At least two or three of them should become major league winners, right? Again, the law of averages has to work in the Rangers’ favor at some point, doesn’t it.

Plus, the list of pitchers who’ll be free agents this winter doesn’t look too exciting and looks pretty old (ages for next season in parentheses: source MLB Trade Rumors):

Carlos Zambrano (27)
Curt Schilling (41)
Jason Jennings (29)
Koji Uehara (33)
Freddy Garcia (32)
Kenny Rogers (43)
Jon Lieber (38)
Bartolo Colon (35)
Joe Kennedy (29)
Tomo Ohka (32)
John Thomson (34)
Kip Wells (31)
Wade Miller (31)
Livan Hernandez (33)*
Randy Wolf (31) – $9MM club option for ’08
Paul Byrd (37) – $8MM club option for ’08
Jeff Weaver (31)
Tom Glavine (42) – $9MM player option for ’08
Kris Benson (33) – $7.5MM club option for ’08
Jaret Wright (32)
David Wells (45)
Eric Milton (32)
Kyle Lohse (29)
Matt Clement (33)
Rodrigo Lopez (32)
Josh Fogg (31)
Byung-Hyun Kim (29)
Odalis Perez (31) – $9MM club option for ’08
Brett Tomko (35) – $4.5MM mutual option for ’08

If the Rangers can sign Carlos Zambrano, they should. He’s a true ace who could at 27 could anchor the Rangers’ rotation for years. But like so many aces before him, why would he come to the Ballpark and the Rangers? It would take crazy money for him to pass on the numerous great offers he’ll get from teams who will be contending for years to come.

So, short of a miracle signing of Zambrano, I think the Rangers best move may be to stick with the arms they have and see how these prospects play out. Then they’ll have the trade deadlines next season and the winter of ’08-’09 – when they’ll have a more clear picture of what they have in the guys they have – to shore up any holes in the rotation.

The problem there is that they’ll likely still have several large holes. But we’ve got time to wait and see.

Trade Rumor of Interest: Dontrelle Willis May Be Avalilable!

For years, I’ve been saying that the Rangers should make the Marlins an offer they can’t refuse for Dontrelle Willis.  At only 25, Dontrelle is THE premiere young-but-developed lefty in the game today.  The Rangers need a lefty. In his column today, Ken Rosenthal mentions that now that Mark Buehrle is off the market, the D-Train’s value hasn’t been higher in some time, which could open the Marlins’ ears to trade offers.

The same was said last season.  And I have to believe that if Little Jon DanielsHart had put a package together out of some combination of John Danks, Fransisco Cordero, Laynce Nix, Kevin Mench, Nick Masset and Jacob Rasner, Willis would be a Texas Ranger right now.  Instead, we have McCarthy and Cruz left from deals that sent those guys packing.  Wouldn’t you gladly take Willis for as many as four from that list and not have McCarthy or Cruz? 

Before you accuse me of using hindsight that’s 20/20 – I said this last year, in repeated posts on T.R Sullivan’s blog and elsewhere.  When the Rangers didn’t try and the Marlins pulled back from shopping Willis, I suggested the Rangers turn their eye toward acquiring the next-best, developed young attainable lefty – Mark Buerhle (who they had and missed a chance to get).

It’s rare to get a second chance.  If the Marlins’ door is even slightly cracked open, Hicks and Daniels ought to kick it in with whatever it takes.  They should go “All In” if they have to.

Seriously, if it takes sending the entire Oklahoma Red Hawks roster to the Marlins to get Willis, that’s what the Rangers should do.  I truly believe that they’d be more successful over the next 5-7 years with Willis (assuming they resign Dontrelle after 2009 and he stays healthy for most of that time) than they would be with all of the prospects they have at AAA (maybe 3-5 of whom will ever make any meaningful contribution to the Rangers).

OK, that’s nuts, and I am exaggerating to make a point.  But if it took packaging Hurley, Rupe and Botts – I’d do it in a heartbeat.  Botts would be the hardest to let go of, but the Rangers don’t seem to want to bring him up anyways.  Hurley and Rupe – they’re still prospects.  We have NO idea what will become of them, but history shows the odds are stacked against them ever developing their full potential as Rangers or in The Ballpark.  A bird in the hand is worth two prospects in the bush leagues – easily. 

In fact, that offer may not be enough for the Marlins.  OK.  We’ll throw in Tex (we’ll pay 30% of his salary next season) and the Marlins’ choice of Cruz, Tejeda or Kasey Kiker but they have to throw in Mike Jacobs.

Many say Willis is over-rated.  He does need to do better against righties, but he would immediately be the Rangers’ ace… head and shoulders better than any pitcher they’ve had this millenium.  He’d make the entire rotation better by pushing Millwood to #2, lowering the need to sign a free agent this winter from a top-of-the-rotation guy to a mid-rotation winner, while McCarthy, Loe, Padilla, Volquez, Wright, Wood and Mendoza compete for the last two spots.

Robbers Evidence: Bye Bye Buehrle

In several previous posts, I’ve mentioned how Mark Buerhle could have already been a Ranger(https://rangersorrobbers.wordpress.com/2007/04/19/robbers-evidence-exhibit-a-revisited-no-buerhle-no-no/) and should be the free agent pitcher the Rangers sign this winter (https://rangersorrobbers.wordpress.com/2007/06/27/announcing-the-2008-texas-rangers-25-man-roster-2/).

Well, all that’s a pipe dream now as the White Sox resigned Mark Buehrle to a 4-year, $54 million contract. 

That narrows the field of starting pitchers the Rangers should consider signing this winter (Buehrle topped my list, and I think only Carlos Zambrano could be argued to be a better signing amongst the would-be class of winter free agents).

And without a single starter with a winning record or an ERA under 5.30 going into this week’s All-Star break, a shrinking free=agent pool increases the pressure on Ron Washington and pitching coach Mark Connor to develop at least one (if not two) of the young or trying-to-comeback Rangers pitchers into a contributing starter who can win more games than he loses (in order of liklihood at present:  Loe, McCarthy, Wright, Tejeda, Hurley, Wood, Koronka, Rheinecker, Rupe).  It also makes the return to form of Millwood and Padilla more important, because the caliber of free-agent starter the Rangers can sign this winter just went down unless they ink Zambrano, which I don’t think is likely nor do I think he’d be worth the price as he’s not a great fit for the Rangers or The Ballpark.  That probably means Millwood will be the Opening Day starter again, and he’s really a #2 at best.  Finally, it puts more importance on Jon DanielsHart and Hicks getting a trade done (and done well) with Teixeira – as Tex is the only chip they have left to acquire a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation talent (Chad Billingsly is looking really nice at this point – maybe too nice for the Dodgers to part with after going 1-0 in 2 July starts with a 2.25 era and 14 Ks in 12 IP). 

So congratulations to Buehrle and the White Sox, and to Tom Hicks, the Rangers front office and coaching staff and their pitchers aspiring to be worth a spot in a competitive major league rotation:  TIME TO GET ROLLING!

Vicente Padilla Going on the DL… and That’s Great!

No, I’m not the type to be happy when someone is hurt.  I wish Padilla a quick, full and easy recovery.

But the reality is that he’s not doing the team any good right now – and I’m not just referring to his struggles. 

If it were possible, I would send Millwood and Padilla down to AAA anyways, giving all the starts possible to Loe, McCarthy (assuming he does indeed return soon), and Tejeda plus some combination of Wood, Koronka, Cruceta, Rupe (when he’s ready) and by August – Hurley.

The upside to failing fast is there’s no reason not to give these young arms experience and a chance to break through now.  If just 1 or 2 of them become winners by late next season, the Rangers could be ready for contention again as early as 2009.

In the meantime, Millwood and Padilla need to get healthy and figure some things out.  They’re veterans who don’t need big league innings to do either.  Plus, as Jamey Newberg points out, I won’t be surprised to see both of them suddenly improve in late ’08 and all of 2009 when they’re in money years of their contracts.  I’ve been having similar thoughts on that, and while I won’t go as far as Jamey and predict a division crown for the Rangers in ’09 (there are too many things Hicks and Daniels can and likely will screw up between then and now), I do believe it’s a real possibility.  If…

In the meantime, enjoy a good rest, Vicente.  See you in a few weeks, months, next year – whenever, really, take your time!

Fighting to Be Patient with Rangers Pitchers (Especially Kameron Loe)

After another bad Kameron Loe start earlier tonight, I started to write this post with the title “Time for Loe to Go… to the Bullpen.”  I’m weary of him only having 3 pitches, and I keep thinking that the Rangers should stop the bullpen-rotation musical roles and once-and-for-all put Loe in the bullpen.  I think he could become a great set-up man.

But then I remembered that he’s pitching for the worst team in baseball so far in 2007 and quite likely the worst team in baseball history when it comes to developing pitchers.

So why rush?  Loe would be more valuable if he became the starter he showed signs of becomming in 2005.  I looked it up on baseball-reference.com, and this was Loe’s record as a starter just 2 seasons ago:

And in his 4 wins as a starter, he had an amazing 0.89 ERA.  His 2 losses featured a 8.10 ERA, but that was under Buck “I’m Too Lazy to Stroll to the Mound” Showalter who never seemed to know when to get a guy out of the game.  So, with a better manager, Loe’s bad outings could have been less dreadful and his stats would be even better.

I like Kameron Loe (click the his name listed in the tag below or the tag cloud to the right for previous K-Loe posts).  I like his intensity.  He’s got a Ranger spirit. 

But he is pitching for the Rangers.  The best way to develop him would be to ship him to San Diego, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Atlanta – heck almost anywhere but here or Colorado – and then bring him back in free agency in a couple years.  Short of that, patience is a virtue that’s hard to develop.

And, IF just one guy between Loe, McCarthy, Wood or Tejeda (or Rupe or Hurley or Herrera or Koronka or etc.) could develop into a reliable, winning starter – then the Rangers could be just one free agent signing and one good Mark Teixeira trade away from having a – dare I say it – competitive rotation next year. 

After 35 seasons and only 1 playoff win, that would make being patient through more outings like tonight’s worthwhile.

Believe It or Not – Rangers Are Performing As They Usually Do

If you’ve been a Rangers’ fan for any time at all, you know that the team has always needed better starting pitching. 

Year-in, year-out it’s the same thing.  The offense produces at or near the top of the league.  The bullpen is decent or better, but spotty.  The defense is average or a bit worse.  And the anchor around the team’s neck is the starting pitching.

But it seemed as though this year was different in that things are bad on all fronts.  Well, further investigation says – not really.

The truth is, it’s really just a bad rendition of the same old story for the Rangers.  The team actually ranks 5th in the majors in runs scored.  As T.R Sullivan pointed out yesterday, “Rangers relievers entered (last night’s) game with a 2.95 ERA for May and a 3.63 ERA for the season.”

Defensive has been poor – worse than usual, but the starting pitching has be atrocious.  Not a single starting pitcher has an ERA below 5.00.  Tejeda leads the ratty pack with a 5.18 era.  Padilla = 5.52.  McCarthy = 6.35.  Loe = 6.38.  Millwood = 6.62.  And Wood = 7.02.  As a result, again as T.R. points out, the bullpen has alreay, “pitched 173 innings, the most in the American League.”  And thus, when they had a chance to keep a game winnable last night, they couldn’t.  Looks like things are more normal than they look at The Ballpark. 

So with pitching that bad, why aren’t Rupe and Volquez up here yet?  They couldn’t do any worse. 

More on the Upside of Failing Fast

A week ago, in a post that included some venting about my frustrations with WordPress, I wrote about the Upside of Failing Fast:

“At least they’re collapsing in May so Hicks, Cogen and DanielsHart can’t string us out until the usual Rangers August-September fade out.  One lesson about risk taking, is that if you’re going to fail, fail fast.  The Rangers have almost always dragged us through a gradual failing.  Failing fast could be the best thing this team has done in years.  It would make Little Jon DanielsHart a seller around the deadline (not that he’s kept a lot to sell – except Tex, but more on that later), and prevent him and Hicks from making some stupid deal that costs us dearly in the long-term just to keep the Rangers close enough that they can keep selling more tickets.  And then the young guys can play. ”

(Hey – if “journalists” can quote themselves sometimes, why can’t I?”)

As the Rangers went 3-3 since that post, I thought more about the concept.  And I found myself worried that they were winning.

Let me explain.

What would the Rangers possibly gain from playing .500 or slightly better ball the rest of the season?  They’re just not good enough, not to mention healthy enough, to make up a 9.5 game deficit against the Angels who apparently OWN them this season (remember Hicks views the Angels as “our partners”).  And if they win just enough to keep us – and Hicks and DanielsHart – hoping against hope, we risk seeing management make some hare-brained trade to try to win now at the expense of the long-term picture/pitching and the further erosion of talent from the system (see previous posts about the could/should-be team comprised of recent ex-Rangers).

Even Dale Hanson got it right on the radio yesterday when he compared the Rangers recent history to that of the Cowboys – where management continues to make moves thinking they can contend now at the expense of longer-term success.

As a 27-year fan of the Texas Rangers, I can wait another year or two for someone to finally put together an organization that is built to win a championship.  And maybe, just maybe, failing fast will be enough for Hicks and DanielsHart to do some things differently now that will help the team in the long term.

AND, in the meantime (if Hicks and DanielsHart are serious about stability), it gives new manager Ron Washington the time to develop the young talent we do have while gearing up our core guys (e.g. Young and Kinsler, and… well, that may be it) for a serious run at championship-caliper baseball from ’08-2010.  It can be done – just look at Detroit (more on that another time…).

So let the young guys get their at bats and throw their innings.  Let’s see if McCarthy, Tejeda, Loe or Rupe can be winning starters in the major leagues.  Let’s see if Cruz, Botts and so on really do have the stuff to have long prolific careers ahead of them.

And, like the Cowboys in 1989, let’s have our 1-15 season so we can build for the future and turn things around in big way!  The Cowboys starting seeing real improvement by the end of 1990, made the playoffs in ’91 and won the first of three-out-four Super Bowls in 1992. 

There are significant differences in how to build a winning football versus baseball organization, but the long-term focus is needed in Arlington.  And with that in mind, let’s root for the real winning to start taking root late this summer giving the Rangers momentum into next year and beyond.

Could I (Please Lord Let Me) Be Wrong about The Rangers Pitching Prospects?

Am I turning into an optimist, or is the Rangers rotation really showing signs of life?

I’m on record as stating that the Rangers and the Ballpark are not the club or stadium for young pitchers to hone their mental game and get over the hump from prospect to productive starter.  No one (except perhaps Kevin Brown) really ever has. 

But looking back at the last few starts from Tejeda and McCarthy, and there’s suddenly a lot of reason for hope.  If just one of these two develop enough in what has quickly become a “building” year for the Rangers to be a true, solid #2 pitcher, much less a #1, then 2008 starts looking really good for this team.  If that is compounded by Gagne finding good health for a year or two, the Rangers could turn things around quickly as the decade closes.

As I wrote last week, failing fast could be the best thing the Rangers have done in years.  The young guys are getting more playing time to develop, and are doing so sans the pressure of a pennant race.  Also helpful is the rash of veteran injuries.  I hate to see anyone hurt, and wish all the hurt Rangers a speedy recovery, but in the meantime, their absence is forcing management to give increasing playing time to the younger guys, which given their fan-fleecing mentality, they’ve been reluctant – even resistive – to doing in the past.  Now they have no choice, and it might be for the best in the long run.

Hank Blalock Gone ’til September and It’s O.K.

I’ll miss Hank; so will the team.  But despite a good start from Tejeda and an offensive surge tonight in Houston, this season is over (barring a miraculous 10+ game winning streak rolling forth from tonight on).

So now, Hank can heal.  He can get back in time for the end of the season and be ready for a better run next year.   There couldn’t be a better time for him or anyone else to get hurt.  Let the veterans have a slow year, and bring up all the yourh in the system for development.  For starters:  I like the idea from a commenter over on Elysian Fields to move Teixiera over to third and call-up Botts to play at 1B. 

While Hanks’s out, look for Sammy to be traded ASAP after he hits his 600th home run.  His stock is higher than anyone expected as he’s been taking care of business.  And while I really like Sammy, he is not part of the Rangers’ long-term future, so the smart move is to trade him ASAP and get a couple younger guys in here in return (preferably including a pitcher with 4-5 years in the majors who might be on a team looking to contend now but could use Sammy’s bat and wants to clear some salary from the pitcher who could take the 3 slot and a young outfield bat that could blossom under Rudy). 

Time for Little Jon DanielsHart to show if he can be a better seller than he’s been a buyer.  The problem is, what does he have to sell?  More thoughts on that ahead…

Opening Day Eve…

Just like Hicks and Cogen like it, hope Springs eternal.  That’s central to their business plan.  They do just enough to give fans like us hope so we spend money on Rangers tickets and time watching them on TV – all leading to profits for them. 

But like a kid on Christmas Eve, I’m restless tonight.  Despite my 27 years as a Rangers fan and the knowledge of the fan-fleecing con artists in our team’s front office, I still hope against hope.  Because this year, the circus freaks in the front office have added a true jester to the Show – Ron Washington.

Calling our new skipper a jester is no insult.  I use it in the meaning related by some accounts that a court jester was an important – perhaps the most important – job in a royal court.  According to such accounts, the jester was responsible for morale and was also the only one in the King’s court who could tell the King anything – good news or bad – without consequence.  He was empowered to speak truth to power without fear of reprisal or repercussion.  He often dissented from the nobles and voiced concerns of the people.  And with his style of leadership and fountain of optimism, I think Ron Washington just might fit the role of Jester to the Rangers’ King Hicks, Circus Chamberlain Cogen and Majordomo “Liitle Jon” Daniels. 

This is also an appopriate characterization as the latter three view Rangers Fandom as comprised by peasants who have no rights and should just blindly pay tarriffs and fees to their royal court.

But now we have a skilled Jester in town, and an experienced one at that.  Rangers royalty should be uncomfortable.  Because I believe Washington cares for his players first and fans second and will speak accordingly to Rangers royalty – which could threaten their business plan and demand a winning season, but then if our hopes are fulfilled, the Jester, not their highnesses, will deservedly receive credit.

Under Washington’s management, we have a lot to hope for:

1. Someone’s actually telling our pitchers to throw strikes!
2. He lists manufacturing runs as a top priority.
3. Unlike the last skipper, he seems to know when a pitcher is done and isn’t too lazy to stroll out to the mound and call in relief
4. He is pulling this team together into a cohesive unit that wants to win – those are two important “x” factors that have been missing in Arlington in recent seasons but evident in recent Champions and serious contenders (see 2005 White Sox, 2005 & 2006 Astros and Cardinals, and 2006 Tigers).
5. He’s achieved a lot while still a neophite – imagine what he’ll do if/when the team starts winning and his clout grows

From the field, reasons for hope have emerged this Spring (Kinsler, Sosa, Loe, Wright) while reasons for doubt remain (Padilla, McCarthy, Tejeda, Blalock, Wilkerson).  (See T.R.’s Spring-training summary for more at: http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/trsullivan/2007/03/in_the_desert_o.html .)  But less than 21 hours from now, hopes and doubts start to prove out as another long season begins. 

I can’t wait to open my present along with thousands of other fans on The Duece at 9pm!

Go Rangers! 

Comment: Wright decision on Loe

Cameron Loe’s been spectacular this Spring and has the capacity to continue performing at this level for a long career as one of the best middle-relievers in baseball, and the Rangers will be better off for it and so will he.  With only three pitches, Loe is sunk as a starter.  As a reliever for a team with major problems in its rotation, Loe will shine.  I think and the Rangers will be better off for it.

And, while Wright is starting to slip from his remarkable start this Spring, he’s still has the potential to be the Rangers’ best starter this season.  Millwood and McCarthy need to step it up starting next week in Anaheim, and Padilla and Tejeda can and must do the same.  Otherwise, Loe will be getting a starting nod by May.

Comment: Rotation Woes

Anyone disagree that our rotation is worse to start this season than it was at the end of last season – when Tejeda was pitching well and instead of an unproven McCarthy and a big hole for the 5th spot, we had Eaton and Kip Wells, respectively?

Hard to downgrade from that rotation, which faded down the stretch, but congrats Little Jon – you did it! 

I will say, though, that the competition for the 5 spot is the best thing going for this team right now.  Overall, the guys vying to fill the 5 spot have outperformed Padilla, McCarthy and Tejeda so far this Spring.

Mark this down – before May, one of the guys “locked in” to the top 4 spots will lose their job to one of the guys currently competing to be #5 .  And not because of injury, but performance.