Next Year’s Rotation Predictions?

With the free agent pitching market not looking too great this winter and the Rangers stacked with young arms that are predicted to break through, what will the Rangers rotation look like out of the gate next April?

Unless Laird is packaged with someone (Padilla? Loe? Rheinecker? Tejeda?) in a trade for a significant upgrade in pitching, I believe the Rangers will (and should) let their current arms play and sort themselves out for 2009 and beyond.

Millwood, McCarthy and Gabbard are the only sure bets I see for the rotation. I guess Padilla falls in there too considering his contract and the hope that this season’s performance can be chalked up to injury and a just an off year.

I still think Loe is the new Benoit. And I think he’ll have a great career in the bullpen. That would leave Volquez, Rheinecker, Tejeda and maybe Hurley (seems like I’m forgetting someone) vying for the 5th spot in the rotation.

How do you think it plays out? 

Texas Rangers Trade Deadline Review: Jon Daniels Earns D+

With a last minute, extra-credit submission in the form of the Gagne trade, Little Jon DanielsHart avoids immediate expulsion from school and pulls an F- up to a D+ for the summer trade semester. 

That’s still a failing grade overall, despite a great trade for Gagne. Why?

For a team that has always needed PITCHING but has never been able to develop pitching prospects or sign top free agent starters, it’s inexcusable that JD was not able to pry at least one MLB-ready pitcher who has at least begun a successful transition to the major leagues out of any of the contenders needing an extra bat when we were offering Teixeira – the PREMEIRE bat on the summer market who’s under contract through next season also. That’s even more inexcusable when he also coughed up Mahay along with Tex.

I can’t believe how many Rangers fans have bought into the Rangers’ public relations face-saving propaganda that getting the Braves #1, #2 and #3 prospects makes the Teixeira trade a good one. Garbage!

First, let’s review the definition of prospect:

Prospect (noun) – 1. the possibility of future success; 2. belief about the future (WordNet^® 3.0 © 2006 Princeton University)

Thus, the guys we got in the deal have nothing but a possibility of success based on someone’s belief about their future performance. So we shipped off two known, highly valuable commodities for five big question marks! At least one known, as bankable as can be commodity should have been acquired in return. Unfortunately instead, only time will tell – and with these guys, time may range from this month to 4-5 years from now.

Second, consider the difficulty of forecasting prospects’ futures:

Prospects in baseball are particularly iffy. In basketball or football, it’s generally much easier to predict a prospect’s likelihood of making an impact (yes – there are plenty of exceptions). More than in other team sports, players at the major league baseball level are mostly distinguished by the mental aspects of the game – focus, concentration, pitcher-batter strategy, etc. This is particularly true where the two major aspects of the game – pitching and hitting – are concerned. There are just too many variables – again most of them mental, which are nearly impossible to predict – to developing potential and transitioning to the major league level.

Third, while we may have received the best prospects the Braves had, that doesn’t make them the right prospects for the Rangers rebuilding needs. 

1.   Salty – may be a good fit for the Rangers, especially if he can improve behind the plate. If the expectations for his future production are even 75% correct, then he’ll be a major upgrade over Laird, who should be moved to the bench or traded if Teagarden continues to progress.

2.  Elvis Andrus – an 18-yo SS who’s struggling at the plate at A Myrtle Beach. Again, last I checked, we have a great SS who’s locked-up through 2013 and a potential All-Star 2B in his second MLB season at only 25. If we want to find there replacements, I suggest the draft in – oh, maybe 2010 would be more appropriate.

3.  Matt Harrison – is a 21-yo nothing but prospect LHP at AA. He has potential, but again, when have the Rangers ever turned young pitching potential into a winner at the major-league level?

4.  Neftali Feliz – a 19-yo nothing but prospect RHP still in the rookie league.

5.  Beau Jones – a 21-yo LHP doing well, but only at Class A Rome.

On almost any other team, you might be able to bet with confidence that at least one of the three pitching prospects will become a winning starter within the next 2-4 years.  But not so with the Rangers.

That’s why JD HAD to get a pitcher who has at least begun a successful transition to the major leagues in return for Tex, much less Tex and Mahay.

The Lofton trade was also a disappointment. 

Lofton may be a 40-year-old rent-a-player to the Indians, but he will help the Indians down the stretch (on and off the field). I think his value to them is more than a Class-A catcher on whom the Braves already gave up last year to acquire Bob Wickman.  It’s a long, long road from being a Futures-Game Class A catcher to a big league contributor. 

The Gagne Trade May Have Saved Daniels’ Job – For Now 

Finally! JD got a pitcher who is well into a successful transition to the major leagues, plus one who’s a lefty from the AL in Kason Gabbard!

Gabbard has progressed well at every level, including his time in the majors. If he can keep his head straight in the unforgiving Ballpark and keep his stats within the same general range he’s been performing at, he will be a winning pitcher for several years to come. If he comes to Arlington and can improve at all – he’ll be the ace of our staff by ’09 at the latest. 

The two outfielders in the deal were also good pick-ups. Left-handed hitting 27-yo CF David Murphy could do very well in the Ballpark. He’s already had some limited success in the majors, and should be a September call up and ready to compete for a spot on the big club next season. 18-yo “5-tool” outfielder Engel Beltre is several years away, but is reportedly one heck of a prospect.  

In Sum 

Overall, the Rangers shipped off Teixeira, Gagne, Mahay and Lofton in return for: 

1 MLB-ready pitcher

2 Probably ready to break through position players (Salty and Murphy)

3 Very young, who knows what they’ll be position prospects (Andrus, Beltre and Ramirez)

3 Young, who knows what they’ll be pitching prospects (Harrison, Jones, Feliz). 

To give up that much highly-prized and sought-after talent and not have 2 MLB-ready pitchers in return is terrible.  

Salty and Murphy are strong maybe’s, but there are concerns about both of their games. And then there are six really big question marks?????? 

That leaves Gabbard as the only acquisition whose value can be close to accurately projected. 

As of today, that’s a terrible performance from Little Jon DanielsHart.

In time, if Gabbard lives up to expectation, if Salty becomes one of the leagues top producing catchers, if Murphy works out, if one of the three pitching prospects becomes a winner at the major-league level, then this could become a very good performance from Little Jon DanielsHart. But that’s too many “if’s” given all the Rangers had to offer. 

And after 27-years as a fan, there are too many reasons to be skeptical. Hanging on to hopes that so many “if’s” will pan out is just asking for more heartbreak, and I expect more from the General Manager.

Gagne Trade Next on the Rangers’ List of Things to Stink Up?

They’ve stunk up the AL West. They’ve stunk up a trade for Kenny Lofton. And they’ve somehow managed to really stink up the trade for Mark Teixeira. What’s next for Little Jon DanielsHart and Tom Hicks?

Eric Gagne, come on down! You’re the next Rangers trade chip on The Price is Wrong!

Talk has picked up surrounding Gagne with rumors involving the Yankees, Angels and Mets (three teams not on Gagne’s limited no-trade list) as well as the Red Sox and Indians (who are on the list) and the Dodgers and Mariners (whom no one seems to know if they’re on the list or not).

After Jon Daniels gave away Lofton and Teixeira for far less than any competent GM should have been able to get, the sharks are circiling. If I were a GM of a contending team with A or AA prospects, I’d be calling JD with all kinds of low-ball offers now (for Gagne, Benoit, Laird, Millwood, Wright) as he suddenly seems enamored with ultra-young prospects full of question marks. 

But they better strike fast, because Jon Daniels shouldn’t have a job for too much longer!

Who Played Their Last Game as A Ranger Today?

Things are picking up a bit on the Teixeira front (seperate post to follow).  Other than (hopefully) Teixeira, who else lost their final game as a Ranger this afternoon in Kansas City?

Eric Gagne? 

Reports still linger that Gagne may be shipped to the Yankees, but I haven’t seen anything of late about who the Rangers may get in return. The Yankees are not on Gagne’s list of team to which he can veto a trade, but he’s made it clear that he wants to remain a closer. Will his attitude get in the way of the Yankees coughing up something for him knowing that they won’t take Mariano Rivera out of the closer spot? A few other teams may still have interest. 

My belief he should get traded: 100%

Chances he actually gets traded: 40%. 

Joaquin Benoit?

Lots of teams want him, and I say they can have him. Been tired of his roller-coaster inconsistencies over the years. It’s time to cut bait and sell high. What’s being offered in return? Reports are sketchy. Some rumors say the Braves (still the apparent leaders in talks to acquire Teixeira) have also been asking.  Maybe Benoit goes to Atlanta in an uber-deal. If so, be prepared for him to succeed for several years and to be tempted to feel that we should have kept him. But don’t. We’re seeing the best he can do as a Ranger, and it would be down hill from here (at best).

My belief he should get traded: 100%

Chances he actually gets traded: 70%. 

C.J. Wilsom?

He;s another one the Braves are rumored to be angling for, but Little Jon Daniels Hart should be able to get something done without giving up C.J. He’s been a strong lefty out of the bullpen who’s improved significantly in each of the past 3 seasons. I don’t see him as a closer like some fans do, be he could be a heck of a set-up man for a long time.

My belief he should get traded: 10% (never say never – would have to blow my hair back with the return we get)

Chances he actually gets traded: 20%. 

Gerald Laird?

Rumor has it the Cubs may still be interested, and electing to take a catcher – A-baller Max Ramirez – for Kenny Lofton could be a small sign about what the Rangers are thinking.

My belief he should get traded: 50% (I don’t think he’s our long-term answer at C, but unless we’re offered something real juicy, he deserves the rest of this season and next with Rudy Jaramillo givng him every chance to be more consistent at the plate.)

Chances he actually gets traded: 20%. 

Others of note: 

Ron Mahay could also be subbed into a deal with the Braves, but while he’s older, than C.J. he’s still got good years left in him – enough to contribute when the Rangers could be ready to contend in ’09 and beyond. JD should hold onto him unless it’s a deal maker in another trade, but his name hasn’t been mentioned much lately.

Silence has fallen over Sammy Sosa, probably because he’s STUNK all July (.274/.359/.188) with only 2 HRs – if only he’d kept chugging away for a few more weeks, we might have gotten something decent for him.

Frank Catalanotto’s name was bantied about in some reputable spots a few weeks ago. That’s all gone quiet. It’s a shame. I met Frank during his first stint with the Rangers, and I like him. If he hadn’t been hurt this season, I think he’d be producing enough to garner interest from a contender, and return a couple good prospects if traded. But he’s just not up to par this year. He’s been showing signs of improvement, but likely not enough to generate value in return.

Just about a week ago, several teams were reportedly showing interest in Jamey Wright.  Validly so, as he’d been doing well. But two consecutive bad outings since (10 combined innings with 6 earned runs (another 2 unearned) and only 3ks against 11 hits and 10 walks) killed almost all chances that someone will take him. 

After starting the month on a tear that turned some heads and spawned some rumors, Whiffy Whifferson ($4.35 Million Man Brad Wilkerson) has 27ks to 17 hits for July and only one HR since the first week of July. I really don’t like to just rip on people, but when they’re making crazy money that makes no sense (unless he has compromising photos of Tim Hicks), this calls for an exception. I posted earlier that JD should take a bag of peanuts for Wilkerson if offered. At this point, he should take a piece of chewed gum scraped from the bottom of a bleacher seat in whatever team’s park that might be willing to part with that much for Whifferson. And JD should then have to chew the gum straight through an entire Rangers game as punishment for wasting that much money. Imagine what that could have done for kids in poverty! How does JD sleep at night? Or Whiffy for that matter. Man up and give some of the money back, dude.

All Too Quiet on the Teixeira Front

Silent but deadly. Deadly silent.

Things that keep popping into mind as I trove the major league news sites and cable channels listening for any movement on the Teixeira front. 

Just a few days ago, you couldn’t read a single site or story about the trade deadline without Teixeira’s name in the first few paragraphs – if not the headline.

Now, there’s rumors that a deal with the Braves (a deal I didn’t like the sounds of) is falling apart. The Dodgers have bowed out of the race as they suddenly need pitching; I’ll always wonder if Billingsly and Loney was possible back in June before Tex got hurt(sure seemed like it when Nomar was moved to third). The Yankees and Red Sox seem to have backed away, as did the Tigers long ago. No news on the Angels.

Can Little Jon DanielsHart pull a rabit out of his hat? In my book, he needs to – or it should be his job.

And, what’s the latest on getting something for Gagne, Benoit or even Laird?  Too quiet. Much too quiet!

Scaring me. We’ve got to get a pitcher for Tex – and the time is now.

Announcing the 2008 Texas Rangers 25-Man Roster!

Well, since tonight’s game was rained out and the 2007 season has long been over, I thought I’d finish a post I’ve been thinking about for a while. 

I doubt I’m the only Rangers fan looking ahead to what might be in the cards for Texas in 2008.  If I were GM – and bi-POD Tom Hicks was willing to quit his hypocracy and take some meds for his bi-polar owner disorder to put some smart money where his mouth is – then this is what the Rangers would look like in 2008 (how new additions got here explained in parentheses):

Starters:

• C –  Adam Melhuse
• 1b – James Loney (Teixeira Trade) or Nate Gold
• 2b – Kinsler
• SS – Young 
• 3b – Blalock
• LF – Cruz
• CF – Torri Hunter (FA)
• RF – Marlon Byrd
• DH – Sosa???????

Bench:

•    C – Laird
•   U – Catalanotto
• OF – Botts
•  IF – Ramon Vazquez

Rotation:

1. Mark Buerhle (Free Agent)
2. Kevin Millwood
3. Zack Miner or Chad Billingsley (Teixeira Trade)
4. Padilla
5. McCarthy or Loe

Bullpen

• R – Vasquez
• R – Mahay
• R – Benoit
• R – Eyre
• R – Murray
• SU – Wilson
• CL – Otsuka

The bullpen looks to be shaping up well.  Otsuka will likely be gone, but I’d keep him unless the offers are too good to refuse (and would then sign one of several FAs that will be on the market this offseason).

The rotation is much better with Buerhle taking the top spot and Miner or Billingsley in the middle, putting Millwood at #2 and Padilla at #4, which are spots they’re more suited for.  Buerhle would be my big signing.  I know his velocity is down.  But we need a lefty, and he keeps reminding me of Kenny Rogers (with a better attitude).  The guy just knows how to pitch and win.  Is it a Championship caliber rotation – no.  But it’s a big step in the right direction.

The offense will be better.  I worry about no big bat to replace Teixeira, but if Hunter could repeat his current season, he’d make up for much of the lost production.  Also, Sosa is listed as a question mark.  He’d have to cut down on his K’s for me to keep him.  If he can’t do that, I’d sign an aging power bat to come in, provide some production, and be a veteran presence while contributing to a building sense for winning.  But knowing next year is a stepping stone toward real, sustainable competitiveness, I like the look of the order and the opportunity for some prospects to show if they can bust out.  If not, I’d chase a big signing after the ’08 season.

My expectation would be for this team to finish somewhere just north of .500.  But expectations for 2009 would be to contend in the West, win it in ’10 and make real runs into the playoffs from 2010 – 2012.

BTW, I also happen to think this is Hicks’ plan because it syncs with his business interests, but more on that another time.

Ron Washington May Be Getting Torched, But Don’t Forget This Is Hicks’ Mess

According to recent reports, Ron Washington – a supposedly “players” manager – has lost the confidence and respect of key members of the Texas Rangers roster.  Yes, Ron has done some things wrong.  He’s a rookie manager, and he’ll make rookie manager mistakes.  But when handed a team that:

1. Lacks a real #1, much less a true ace, pitcher in the rotation,
2. Has 3 unproven starters and 2 who are not intimidating, 
3. Is missing an anchor in the lineup to protect Teixeira,
4. Is relying on a rookie catcher who can’t hit to call games,
5. Has a terrible outfield,
6. Lacks any tradition of excellence or winning,
7. Udergoes change in personnel more often than changes in Texas weather, and most importantly…
8. Knows without a doubt after watching several free agents leave and no high caliber free agents get signed that OWNERSHIP IS NOT COMMITTED TO WINNING,

any manager is set up to fail.

Ten years ago, this month, Tom Hicks became the owner of the Rangers.  Since then, the organization has deteriorated from making the playoffs 3 out of 3 years to an embarrassment and a national laughing stock across all of baseball.  So before anyone starts calling for Ron Washington’s head, let’s consider who is to blame for the current state of the team (in decending order of who’s at fault):

1. Tom Hicks
2. Tom Hicks
3. Tom Hicks
4. Tom Hicks
5. Tom Hicks
6. Tom Hicks
7. Tom Hicks
8. Jon Daniels
9. John Hart
10. The Red Dot (from The Dot Race)

What’s the Red Dot to blame for?  Nothing really, but certainly more than Ron Washington.

I’ve shared plenty of thoughts in previous posts (click on Tom Hicks to the right for the most recent posts) about why Tom Hicks is the bane of the Texas Rangers and a walking insult to all Rangers fans and players.  He’s disengenuous.  He’s bi-polar as an owner.  He thinks the Angels are the Rangers “partners” of all things.  He’s the worst owner in baseball, and he’s got to go if this team is to have a chance of turning around.

So let Nolan Ryan buy the team, and then take some notes from the Tigers and Mark Cuban about how to turn a team around.

Rangers Evidence: Great Game Tonight! & It’s a Plane, It’s Superman, It’s a Byrd!

Hats off to McCarthy for a solid start and Benoit for 3 innings of 1 hit ball!  That would have been plenty to be excited about.

But then the bottom of the order (which makes it extra phenomenal) starts a 2-out, bottom-of-the-ninth rally against former teammate and recently unhittable Francisco Cordero in which six consecutive batters – Wilkerson, Vazquez, Laird, Lofton, Byrd and Young – all hit singles to cap a 4-run comeback and win 4-3!  That’s awesome!

The other thing that’s awesome is Marlon Byrd of late!  His AB tonight saw him foul off 3 pitches after falling behind 0-2, and then singling to right off Cordero to drive in the game-tying run!  In 14 games played this season since getting the nod May 26, Byrd has a hit in all but 2 games, has a .377 average with 5 multi-hit games, and a .514 OBP through 8 games in June.  And this has generally been against teams with solid pitching – DET, OAK, BOS, MIL, SEA.  That and an outstanding defensive play tonight and in general are looking like the brightest spot for this team right now.

But, more importantly, a win like this is the type of win this team needs.  Younger guys stepped up to get it done.  Underachievers contributed to scratch out a win.  Finally, the team caught some breaks, and they did it with Tex out.

That means the team has a chance on Sunday to tie a season-high win streak of 3 games.  Maybe tonight’s gritty performance will motivate Padilla to get into the bulldog mindset he needs to find to succees Sunday.  And if they do, don’t look now, but the Rangers will have a winning record for June (5-4) after having won two consecutive series against two tough teams – DET & MIL.

Go Rangers!

Rangers Evidence: Last Night’s Game: That’s More Like It!

Last night’s game displayed many of the things we expected to see more of this season.  Things the Rangers need to continue to turn things around.

Back-of-the-rotation pitcher Mike Wood allowed 4 earned runs over 4 innings (plus one unearned) – on 7 hits and one walk.  That will suffice more often than not.  And if he can avoid the 3 long balls, it would more than suffice.

Then the Daniels-labelled “competitive advantage” bullpen took over for 5 innings of 6 hit, 1 run baseball.  They did their job of keeping the game winnable – in fact, they kept it tied up for the final three innings as, for the first time all season, Otsuka and Gagne made it a 7-inning game for the opponent’s offense by slamming the door shut in the 8th and 9th innings.

Meanwhile, the same players that have been killing the team on offense and defense (Wilkerson, Laird and Cruz – see Saturday’s Morning News wrap up for details of that ugly outing), stepped up big time.  Maybe they knew they were approaching a now or off-to-OKC with you point and responded well, as Wilkerson homered, Laird scored a run and of course, Cruz woke up at a great time to hit his first HR of the season – a solo, walk-off shot in the 9th.

Almost everything about yesterday’s game is very encouraging – most especially that it came against the Angels.

And while one game does not make a season, it can help a team turn a corner.  Let’s hope that today’s contest shows more evidence that the Rangers are ready to turn the corner and make a run at a very winnable division, because I still believe it’s now or never.  If the Rangers are not pulling close to the front of the pack by the end of May, it will be time to re-assess the team’s goals for the season: win this year – or build for a real championship run in 2008 (or more liekly, 2009)?

Lack of Focus

I was sitting in a hotel lobby bar in Austin Tuesday night, watching the Rangers get thrashed again by the Yankees.  Saw Tex take a ground ball right in the keister.  That seems very symbolic of the Rangers’ season and the treatment Hicks is giving us fans.

That game and tonights showed signs of a disconcerting lack of focus from the Rangers.  Kinsler cost us the game with horrible error on a ground ball.  Lofton looked dazed and confused in center on more than one play.  Laird, Cruz and Wilkerson were as bewildered at the plate as usual.  Even Third Base Coach Don Wakamatsu failed to give Lofton a clear stop sign; Lofton’s resulting pause at third almost led to an out instead of the first run of the game had it not been for an odd play at the plate.

All of this against the division leaders, rivals and Ranger-killing Angels Who Don’t Know Where They’re From.  Guys, if you can’t focus and at least look sharp against the Angels at home, then we have to wonder if you’ve given up?  Lackey’s good, but you made him look like Clemens tonight.

And, I wish I didn’t have to say it, but this all leads to questions about the manager.  What has Wash done to spark this lineup?  Cruz, Laird and Wilkerson should all be on a bus to Oklahoma City.  Or, in Wilkerson’s case – on a plane to whatever team will give us anything for him (he’s a career .251 hitter currently hitting .234 and on his usual pace of striking out 18% more often than he gets a hit).  Ron, it’s time to stop worrying about being a “player’s manager” and start working on getting more out of your team.  I believe you can, but you need to start by getting the entire team focused.

BTW, Tex went 5 for 8 with 3 RBIs and no Ks in two games after taking one in the rump.  I think that disloged his head out from his bum for a spurt.  Maybe Wash should give a swift kick to the derriere as part of warmups before every game.