Gagne to Red Sox for Kason Gabbard! Finally A Winning Trade from Jon Daniels!

Well, the tradeline passed a few hours ago, and word has it that Gagne has been dealt to the Boston Red Sox for Kason Gabbard and two other prospects.

JD gets an ‘A’ for this one! This is a great trade for the Rangers.

FINALLY, the Rangers get a pitcher who’s already well into the process of adjusting to the major-leagues! A 25-year-old lefty, Gabbard started 4 games last season (going 1-3 with a 3.51 era, 5.35 Ks/9 and a 1.55 whip) and 7 games this year (going 4-0 with a 3.73 era, 6.37 Ks/9 and a 1.12 whip). He could immediately become the Rangers #2 starter if he can keep those numbers from ballooning more than 20% in the Ballpark. He’s 3-0 in 5 July starts with a complete-game 3-hit, 1-walk shutout of KC (and in July, an era of 3.03, a remarkable 0.83 whip, and an improving ground-out ratio).

The two minor leaguers are reportedly 27-yo CF David Murphy and 18-yo “5-tool” outfielder Engel Beltre. Left-handed hitting Murphy has 24 MLB ABs between last year and this (.250 avg and .857 ops in those ABs) and is hitting .280 with a .769 ops in 400 ABs at AAA Pawtucket. He’ll certainly see time with the Rangers this season, and with a move to the Ballpark and into Rudy Jaramillo’s tuteledge, I like the odds of him making the Rangers outfield and becomming a productive hitter next season and beyond.  Beltre is several years away, but is reportedly one heck of a prospect. 

The trade solidifies the Red Sox’s bullpen and their status as the favorites to win the AL pennant (sorry Tigers fans – ya’ll should have done more). Red Sox games just became 7-inning affairs with Gagne and Pappelbon waiting to wrap things up.

Apparently, Gagne waived his veto power over a trade to Boston (which is a smart move on his part as he’ll almost certainly get a chance to play deep into the post-season and increase his value as a free agent in the winter). When the Rangers might just try to sign him back (or will likely pickup any of 7 high-octane closers likely to be on the free agent market).

So, you Rangers fans upset about us trading Gagne – you need to study up on the modern economics and workings of MLB. Gagne, no matter how much he said (and I happen to believe him) he liked Texas and wanted to stay here, is a Scott Boras client who will be a free agent this winter. Keeping him risked watching him walk with nothing but a couple of draft picks as compensation. Instead, we got a lefty SP, an all-but-ready-now lefty CF and a great 18-yo prospect. AND, we have as much (maybe a little bit better) chance as any other team to sign Gagne this winter or acquire another closer while C.J. Wilson moves into the set-up role.

As the dust settles on this and all the Rangers trades, look for a “Texas Rangers Trade Deadline Review” post tomorrow.

Then, it’s time to start enjoying a new era of Rangers baseball and get back to seeing what we can do to get Hicks out of the owners office.

Teixeira to Go to the Braves (or Angels… or Diamondbacks… or Dodgers… or last minute entrant)?

Just more than 32 hours left until the non-waivers trade deadline at 3p EDT tomorrow, and it’s still anyone’s guess as to where Mark Teixeira will go and for whom in return.  Based on various reports across the Internet and TV, here’s how things look at this point (with the contenders listed from most to least likely to grab Teixeira):

1. Atlanta Braves (40% likely) – Local media in Atlanta are reporting the deal as all but done. The deal appears to be Catcher-Firstbaseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Matt Harrison. A sticking point is whether the Braves will also give up Elvis Andrus or Brent Lillibridge in addition to Salty without getting a mid-reliever (they’ve been asking for C.J. Wilson but would take less).

I’m not jazzed at all about this trade as rumored. It’s way too light on pitching in return. I’ve said it dozens of times, and I’ll say it dozens more unless I’m proven wrong. The Rangers can’t develop top-of-the-rotation pitching, they can’t get top free-agent pitchers to sign up to play in The Ballpark, so they’re only real hope to develop a rotation that is championship caliber is to TRADE FOR PITCHING. Teixeira is the last best hope on the radar for the Rangers to acquire stand-out pitching in a trade, and this deal doesn’t do that. 

Harrison is pure prospect. A 21-yo Lefty at AA with a losing record. That’s not going to get the Rangers the rotation they need by ‘09, which should be their target for contending.

Salty is over-rated in my book. Sorry. He skipped AAA – in my view rushed to the majors to increase his trade value. He’s done alright in 47 games for the Braves, but he’s not blowing anyone away (.284 avg, .744 ops with 4 HRs). He may be pretty good some day, but that’s a gamble. And for Tex, the Rangers should get a sure thing, not a “we think maybe.” Plus, spelling the guy’s name is a chore!

Elvis is an 18-yo Venezuelan SS playing A ball – and not hitting all that well yet (.241 avg, .659 ops. with 3 HRs in 98 games). If the Rangers are wanting to find Young’s replacement for 2014, I suggest the draft in around 2010 is a more appropriate opportunity.  

Brent Lillibridge is 23 at AAA, but also a SS who’s hitting so far is mediocre (.283 avg., .757 ops with 5 HRs in 52 games).

If the trade goes down Tex for Salty and Harrison, I’d give it an F.  If it goes Tex for Salty, Harrison and Elvis or Lillibridge, it’s a D-. And if the Rangers throw in even Mahay (much less Benoit or Wilson) to get three of those guys, it’s a surefire job-losing F- for Daniels. 

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (30% likely) - I really hope this is the deal that Little Jon Daniels and Tom Hicks are holding out for.  Word has it that 26-yo Lefty SP Joe Saunders and 24-yo lefty 1b Casey Kotchman are already on the table. Compared to the Atlanta deal, just those two (who are major-league tested) represent a better deal that what the Braves are offering. Plus, there’s been rumors that the Angels may add a third prospect (names vary) to the deal.

Saunders is in his third partial season at the major-league level, and he’s a proven winner in the AL West whose improved every year (11-3 lifetime in the bigs, with a 4-0 record and 3.16 era in 7 starts this season). That would immediately put him ahead of everyone but Millwood on the Rangers starting rotation (and yes, I’m saying he’d be ahead of Padilla – right now). 

Kotchman is hitting well and judging by his road numbers and the fact that lefties love the Ballpark, his numbers would get a quick boost as a Ranger (currently hitting .300 with an .858 ops in 89 games).

Tex straight up for those two would be a B++ trade in my book, and if JD gets any other prospect worth anything at all added in, make it an A+!

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (20% likely) – late entrants whose name popped up publically for the first time just this Saturday, Arizona will have to poney up value fast. But what they may be offering is more cloudy than other teams’ probable offers. 

Grade if it happens: incomplete.  Still too many unknowns here, but things could get interesting.  Again, the pitching offered should be the key.

4. Not-Currently-Suspected Darkhorse (7% likely) –  the Yankees losing ways probably killed the chances of them or the Red Sox trading for Tex. But after a trouncing sweep this weekend by the Angels and Cleveland not cooling off, I still won’t be shocked if the Tigers make a last minute play. But since the Mets, Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies, Indians and Twins all have 1b well manned, that leaves only the Mariners as a current contender who could use Teixera’s services but haven’t been heard from. So a last-minute late entrant looks very unlikely.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers (3% likely) – a month ago, as Nomar was being moved to third, and Loney and Billinglsly were still human, this looked like the deal to do. But injuries to the Dodgers rotation have shifted there priorities, just as Loney’s performance has shifted there view of their needs while Billingsly has pitched himself into the untouchable range.

Updates to follow as more is learned. 

All Too Quiet on the Teixeira Front

Silent but deadly. Deadly silent.

Things that keep popping into mind as I trove the major league news sites and cable channels listening for any movement on the Teixeira front. 

Just a few days ago, you couldn’t read a single site or story about the trade deadline without Teixeira’s name in the first few paragraphs – if not the headline.

Now, there’s rumors that a deal with the Braves (a deal I didn’t like the sounds of) is falling apart. The Dodgers have bowed out of the race as they suddenly need pitching; I’ll always wonder if Billingsly and Loney was possible back in June before Tex got hurt(sure seemed like it when Nomar was moved to third). The Yankees and Red Sox seem to have backed away, as did the Tigers long ago. No news on the Angels.

Can Little Jon DanielsHart pull a rabit out of his hat? In my book, he needs to – or it should be his job.

And, what’s the latest on getting something for Gagne, Benoit or even Laird?  Too quiet. Much too quiet!

Scaring me. We’ve got to get a pitcher for Tex – and the time is now.

Rangers Trade Kenny Lofton to Cleveland for… Max Ramirez?

I was right, and I was wrong.

Turns out Kenny Lofton has indeed become the first Texas Ranger to be dealt.  I was right about that.

But my hopes that JD’s ability to spin up tremendous buzz about Teixeira was “a reflection on his maturation as a GM” seems to be wrong.

JD was just taken to school by Cleveland’s GM – Mark Shapiro.

Lofton may be a 40-year-old rent-a-player to the Indians, but I think his value to them is more than a Class-A catcher that the Braves already gave up on last year to acquire Bob Wickman. To be clear, Ramirez is good prospect.  But it’s a long, long road from being a Futures-Game Class A catcher to a big league contributor. Projecting Ramirez into the big leagues is a very cloudy calculation.  I do think the Rangers need to stock up at Catcher because I doubt even Rudy Jaramillo will be able to fix Laird, and the Rangers would be nuts to put all their stock in Teagarden is being THE answer. But this looks like very low return on Lofton.

With Lofton continuing his 16-year run as a top leadoff man this season and last, going to a team for which he is best known and adored by fans, where they’re trying to chase the power-house Tigers or a Wild Card birth, JD should have been able to get more in return. 

This does not bode well for our hopes that Little Jon DanielsHart (I’d stopped calling him that for a while because I thought he was earning it) will be able to make a bloackbuster deal for Tex (much less Gagne, Benoit or Mahay).

(One way this might make more sense is if JD is hoping that by pulling the trigger early with Cleveland – before they might have upped their offer – it will put more pressure on the Tigers, Angels, Yankees and Red Sox (who would each have to compete with the Indians either to get a playoff spot or in the playoffs) to get more serious about acquiring Tex to help hold off the Indians.  And maybe also pressure Seattle and Minnesota to think more about Gagne, Benoit or other Rangers who are available to help them in them chase the Indians for the Wild Card.  This move could have that kind of domino affect – especially if Shapiro and the Indians follow it with another move. If JD’s gotten that savvy, though, I’ll let him slap me across the face at home plate during the seventh inning stretch. Happily.)

Today’s Leader in the Teixeira Trade Sweepstakes: The (not sure where we’re from) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim?

Still loving all the rumoring that’s flying around. Some idiot on ESPN said today he doesn’t think a Teixeira trade will happen before the deadline. Let’s hope my impression of his idiocy and the diminishing ineptitude of Jon Daniels are proven true in the next few days.

Today’s rumors that place the Angels in the lead baffle me.  Apparently the deal would be Tex for Kotchman, Santana and another major leaguer (maybe Joe Saunders?).  If the deal includes Saunders, I think the Rangers should do it in a hearbeat.  He’s a young left-handed arm who’s had success in the majors – in the AL no less.  Santana’s decline this season is disturbing; if the Angels haven’t been able to get him right, the odds are lower that the Rangers could.  Kotchman is no Tex (yet), but especially as a lefty, his numbers would improve in The Ballpark and his hot May (.435/.575/.363) including a 6-for-14 performance with 1 HR over 4 games against the Rangers in The Ballpark that month provided flashes of what could be. 

But why would the Angels make this move? The one reason that keeps leaping to mind is that they see a short two-year window for contending.  If so, grabbing Tex makes sense for them.  But with Colon on the DL (and clearly struggling with nagging injuries when he’s been on the field) and the Mariners chasing hard, can Lackey and Escobar and something from Weaver plus a big offensive spark from Tex paired with Vlad carry them to the post-season? I think so, but it’s going to be a tight a race unless the inconsistent Mariners have their wheels fall off. 

Once in the playoffs, the Angels should be feared, especially if they can nurse Colon along through the season and let him cut loose in the 3 spot in the post-season. With Lackey and Escobar pitching about as well as anyone in the league, the Angels could threaten Boston or Detroit, especially in a 5-game series. In a 7-game series, their offense may have to win at least one game for them, but with Vlad getting protection from Tex, I’d like those odds if I were an Angels fan.

But for the long-term, this deal would probably favor the Rangers.  Don’t see Tex (with Boras) signing long-term with the Angels.  But the problem with long-term is that there are so many variables.  At his current rate of decline, Santana could be stuck in the minors for the rest of his career, or he could rebound and become a key cog in the Rangers rotation.  Kotchman and Saunders are pretty solid bets to be very productive major-leaguers by 2009 (again, the first season the Rangers should be seriously eyeing for contention) and beyond, but you never know.  Injury, decline after a change of scenery, teams, ballparks, weather, time zones – you name it could dampen things. Same if these guys stay with the Angels.  I guess what I’m getting at is the more I think about it, the more it makes sense for the Angels.  They KNOW what they’ll get from Tex, and they KNOW what they need to do this season.  And although Detroit and Boston look hard to stop, the Angels could become that one team that seems to pop up every year that nobody wants to play.

Today’s Leaders in the Teixeira Trade Sweepstakes: The Atlanta Braves?

Continued kudos to Jon Daniels. If his apparently improved ability to spark buzz about a player is a reflection on his maturation as a GM, then maybe there is hope after all that he will orchestrate a trade for Teixeira that provides a good return for the Rangers.

I’m loving all this!  Every day this week it seems like a different team is reportedly the “favorite” to get Tex.  Meanwhile, reports consistently state that the Rangers are asking for a lot.  Great!  They should!  Tex is the biggest offensive sparkplug on the market this season (and a bonified Gold Glover to boot) when several contenders need a boost to their offense.  For several of the interested teams, Mark Teixeira could truly be the piece that completes their championship season puzzle.

(I still think the Tigers lead that list and could be risking one, maybe even two World Championships if they stand pat.  They would be pohibitive favorites this year and next if they grabbed Tex and Benoit for Casey (whose average has improved but power is still lacking but would thrive in Rangers Ballpark in his free agent season in ‘09), Andrew Miller, another starting prospect (Dallas Trahern or Plano’s own Jordan Tata would be my pick), and two outfield prospects (Ryan Raburn and a low prospect would do – it doesn’t have to be Cameron Maybin) .

Yesterday’s reports had the Red Sox as the leading trade partner (which seems a real stretch), and this looks to be the Braves’ day.  They’re getting next to zero production at first base.  And I’ll always take a pitching product of the Braves system (in fact, I’ve often believed that if a team like the Braves who seem to crank out pitchers at will partnered with the Rangers who have done the same with hitters, the two would be great trading partners and could plan several World Series meetings).  Right now, the Braves’ pitching prospects are not overly tantalizing.  RHP Manny Acosta may be the best of their bunch, but he’s not yet established at the major-league level.  The rest are not impressive statistically and are not ready to make a near-term impact at the major leagues.  They have upside, but no more than McCarthy, Loe, Rheinecker, Hurley, Wood and other guys already in the Rangers’ system.  For the Teixeira trade to be a success, it must include a starting pitcher who is as sure a bet as can be to be a top-of-the-rotation winner.  I don’t see that sureness in what the Braves can offer.

At this point, I still think the Dodgers or Yankees are the best fit, but we’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Will a Teixeira Trade Help the Red Sox Win the Series?

Heading into the home stretch of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes, and all reports sound like Jon Daniels has done a good job of whipping up interest amongst the biggest players in MLB – the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels and Braves.

Of note, the Ranger-killing Yankees deserve a lot of credit for fanning the flames of interest in Tex.  Had they not turned things around in dramatic fashion in recent weeks, they probably wouldn’t still be interested in Teixeira, and neither would the Red Sox.  But with another classic Red Sox – Yankees chase gearing up, both teams could use the boost Teixeira offers.

As of today, the leading candidate is reported to be the Red Sox, which is confounding.  The Red Sox need outfield production.  Their infield has been producing well, so I wonder how they’d shuffle up to fit Tex in.

Meanwhile, lefty starter Kason Gabbard would be a great pick up for the Rangers.  The Rangers need a lefty-starter who’s major-league proven but young. Gabbard is 25 and has shown consistent improvement this year, posting a 3-0 mark (1 win vs. Texas) with a 1.93 era in 4 starts in July, including a complete game, 3-hit shut-out of KC.  I like the way this guy looks. Jon Lester has also been mentioned, but my gut tells me the Red Sox will hang on to him (and his inspiring story).  

A pairing of either promising prospect Clay Buchholz (AAA Pawtucket) or Michael Bowden (AA Portland) with Gabbard and throw-in 1B Jeff Bailey to man first until Nate Gold or Kevin West (both of whom have been getting plenty of at-bats in Oklahoma, which is another sign that the Rangers will be doing the smart thing and moving Tex now) are ready, and the Rangers would have a great deal while the Red Sox would have some extra might to stay ahead of the Yanks and likely be able to challenge the Tigers in the post-season this year and next (which is great as those are my 2nd and 3rd favorite teams).

The wrinkle here could be that the Red Sox are on a 5-game winning streak.  The Yankees are still hot, but despite going 8-2 in their last 10, are still 8 games back. The thred on which this opportunity may dangle could be how the Red Sox do at Cleveland and Tampa in their next five games before a day off on Monday to contemplate their situation on the eve of the non-waiver trade deadline.

Scary Signs about the Rangers Getting Confused & Teixeira Needs to Get Back Fast!

I like Mark Teixeira – a lot.  He’s one of my son’s favorite players – and mine.  But I’m starting to wonder if he and/or the Rangers front office are purposefully taking their time to get him back into the lineup now – not July 13th after the All-Star break.

According to T.R. Sullivan’s report on Tuesday, Tex will be starting a rehab assignment soon.  Is it me, or are they lollygagging his return?  I thought only Juan Gonzalez (in his whiney-baby years) took this long to come back from a simple leg muscle strain. 

As teams will want to see that Tex is recovered fully before they trade for him, the Rangers are cutting things close.  A July 13 return gives Teixeira only 18 game opportunities to prove what he’s got after this injury – which was reportedly minor and he was supposed to be back by now.  Also, I fear the slow return may signal to other teams that Tex did more damage to his left quad than was advertised.  As teams like the Dodgers, Tigers and others look prime to consider a deal for Teixeira, all this can’t be helping his trade value.  And the longer wait could mean some teams start looking in other directions they may never have checked if Tex was back and healthy and producing.  So Tex – if you want to help the team and your career, get back fast.

In the meantime, this statement from Ron Washington also troubled me:

“We want to make sure when (Teixeira) does come back we can have him for the rest of the year, not just one day,” manager Ron Washington said.

I HOPE that is a cover statement to alleve some of the concerns I mentioned above while also positioning that we want to keep Tex unless someone makes a great offer.  But the Rangers have rarely shown that kind of savvy under Tom Hicks or Little Jon DanielsHart.

I’m starting to fear that Ron’s comment is reflective of the organization’s true feelings.  Which would be purely STUPID.  Why would they keep Tex this year?  So maybe they finish 28 instead of 35 games out of first place?  And then they have him for one last uncompetitive season in ‘08 before he WALKS AS A FREE AGENT.  That would be assinine when the Rangers could trade him now and likely get a major-league ready starter plus a firstbaseman and/or maybe a prospect or three.

Unless Hicks is willing to about double the team’s salary next season through 3-4 significant free agent signings (yeah – I’m not holding my breath on that one – not even when Hicks will be more interested in winning next season because it would draw more traffic through Where’s The Glory Park and help him lease and sell holdings in his income property before the more attractive Cowboys development is ready), trading Tex is the best opportunity the Rangers have to restructure the team to not just be competitive but to possibly, finally become Championship contenders in the final years of the decade.

Waiting shows wavering.  Wavering scares me.  The only possible upside is if wavering persuades other GMs that they’ll need to aim high to “pry” Teixeira away from the Rangers.

Rangers Need to Trade Mark Teixeira, but Are Hicks and Daniels Going to Miss the Boat (Again)?

Agent Zero and BigDSports share some good insights through comments to my previous post.  Maybe a Teixeira trade with Detroit won’t happen, maybe it will.  Maybe the Rangers are aiming high now to test the market value for Teixeira, but I’m more concerned that they’re not bluffing when they say they want to keep Tex.  Why in the world would the do that?

Hey, he’s one of my favorie players, and I’ll be sad to see him leave.  I’ll root for him wherever he goes.  But the reality is – he’s leaving one way or another by the 2009 season.  All indications are that last winter was the last chance the Rangers had to extend his contract.  In not doing so, the Rangers led Boras and Tex to make the right business decision to wait and play the free agent market.  It would take crazy money for the Rangers to keep them from getting there, but then again Hicks does have a unique track record for successfully bidding against himself.

In the meantime, Teixeira is the ONLY chip the Rangers have to shorten the rebuilding process by several years.  Trading Tex for young major-league-ready-to-break-out starters (but not pure prospects likely to flame out as Rangers) is the only chance Texas has to improve its starting rotation in 1-2 seasons instead of 3-5.  And, the improvements would likely be more significant in addition to being more expedient.  But Hicks and team have shown an amazing capability for missing such chances.

Despite them being two of my favorite players – the Rangers should have traded Pudge and Kenny Rogers for some arms instead of letting them walk, and they should have gotten arms instead of Soriano for Alex Rodriguez. 

It just hit me how ridiculous the logic is behind us being told that “the Yankees and Soriano were the only option for moving ARod.”  I seriously doubt there wasn’t a way to get creative and find another team willing to trade a pitcher or three – or to get an arm out of the Yankees.  With the Rangers paying almost 1/3 of ARod’s contract, some other team could have been sold on trading for ARod for a salary impact of about $17M/yr to them. The true numbers are a bit of a shell game but the Yankees are paying a 40% luxury tax on ARod’s $25M – an extra $10M more than almost any other team would have to pay.  So ARod is costing the Yanks about $27M (in addition to the approximate $7 million the Rangers are paying for ARod to play in NY).  Nobody else wonder if Boston, LAD, NYM, either Chicago team, and maybe the Giants or Astros would’ve taken the bait?  And ARod wanted out of Texas so bad he would have gladly waived his no trade for a team in contention.  NYY were top of his list, sure, but he and Boras kicked Hicks’ and Hart’s rears in negotiations coming and going.  Sad.

And we sure should have gotten more for Soriano, not to mention the idiotic Juan Gonzalez trade. 

Maybe Hicks and DanielsHart only like to screw up trade opportunities involving MVPs.

Oh… no, they even screw up deals involving bullpen guys, like Francisco Cordero.

Will they, can they learn?  Tex is leaving.  Unless they overpay for him, he’s probably going to be a Yankee in ‘09.  So trade him now (meaning as soon as he’s back from the DL and proves that he’s healthy and productive) while the extra season remaining on his contract can command more value than the pure rent-a-player deals that would be available next year.

So my last post may have been a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to Detroit’s moves.  Maybe a Detroit trade will happen, maybe it won’t.  Bottom line – Hicks and DanielsHart better trade Teixeira while his value can command the pitching talent the Rangers need. 

Is the Chance to Trade Teixeira to the Detroit Tigers Sailing Away Today?

While Little Jon DanielsHart and bi-POD Tom Hicks are sitting around talking about how they want Teixeira to retire a Ranger even though it seems clear that Tex and Boras can’t wait for free agency, there are signs that the Tigers are wheeling and dealing today, closing the door on an opportunity for a great trade. 

Apparently, the Tigers have dealt Mike Maroth to the Cardinals (for a player to be named) and Wilfred Ledezma to the Braves for Macay McBride.  This means they’re shoring up their bullpen without looking to Texas.  And with Maroth gone, they’re probably planning to use Zach Miner (who’s rehabbing fast) and Andrew Miller down the stretch. 

So while JD and Hicks were working on JD’s contract extension, one good opportunity looks to have passed them by.

Teixeira Traded to Tigers! Texas Takes Three!

As outlined in the previous post, the Tigers would benefit A LOT from taking Teixeira from Texas.  But what could Texas get for him?

Of course that depends on a few variables.  Do they pair Tex with a bullpen arm?  Are Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson back and playing well when the trigger is pulled on the trade?  Is Tex injury free and in good form at the time of the trade?  Are Tom Hicks and Little Jon DanielsHart finally going to be focused and smart enough to make a trade that benefits their team at least as much as the one they deal with (unlike recent deals with Milwaukee and San Diego)?

For the purposes of this post, let’s assume the answers to the last three questions are all yes (I know that’s a stretch for the last one).  For the first question, let’s assume they trade Tex straight up, although a commenter to the previous post made a great point that adding Gagne (for contractual/financial/health reasons, it would be Gagne, not Otsuka) to the deal would make it extra rich for Detroit as they need bullpen help.

So who does Texas take for Tex?

First, Texas would have to take Sean Casey.  The Tigers won’t carry an under-performng Casey (.341/.345/.280 with no HRs and only 19 RBIs in baseball’s most productive lineup this year) and Tex through the end of the year.  Texas will do Detroit the favor of not forcing them to waste a roster spot or any AAA at-bats with Casey who’s contract ends this year.  And, Casey may actually perform decently in the lefty-batter friendly Ballpark, although Comerica Park isn’t exactly unfriendly to lefty batters.  Also, maybe Casey can share some wisdom for Jason Botts (if DanielsHart ever pulls his head out of his keister and gets Botts up to Arlington), who should get a shot at earning the 1B job for the long-term.

Next, the Rangers turn to the mound.  Remember that Texas can’t develop pitching, so they don’t want to take any of the Tigers’ pure prospects.  Texas needs pitchers who have developed past prospect status and already turned the corner into becomming a bonified major league pitcher.

That’s why the Rangers take Andew Miller.  He’s a lefty, which the Rangers need and which matters in The Ballpark, who’s young but has already had some success at the Major League level.  Texas would be better to get someone with at least a full year of major league starting experience, opposed to just two starts and some bullpen work last season.  But Miller nearly made Detroit’s World Series roster, and all accounts have him on track to become a stud.  He’s signed through 2009, which means the Rangers would get at least 2 meaningful years of service out of him.  And, by the 2009 season, he and the Rangers could both be ready to reach new heights.

But wait, there’s more!

As Miller is just barely out of prospect status (actually he’s still listed as a prospect by Baseball America – #10), it’s going to take more for Texas to part with Tex.  Casey’s a throw-away throw-in that amounts to addition by subtraction for the Tigers.  And Teixeira for Miller straight up would be a Jon Hart caliber deal (that means it would suck for Texas).  That’s why Texas also takes Zach Miner. 

Too much, you say?  Not if the Tigers really do want to win it all now and maybe next year.  They need help at first base, and with no notable firstbasemen heading toward free agency this winter, 1b talent may demand a premium since there won’t be any good rent-a-player deals to be had.  With the surprising emergence of Chad Durbin’s career-best early performance (he’d be the Rangers’ fall-back request if the Tigers balk at Miner), Zach’s already been relegated to the bullpen, even without Kenny Rogers in the rotation.  So when Kenny returns and another starter loses their place in the Tigers’ rotation (likely Nate Robertson), then Zach’s heading backwards fast.  The Tigers are hurting in the ‘pen, but when Joel Zumaya and Roman Colon return to health and Robertson heads to the ‘pen, they’ll be looking a lot better and can get by without Miner who can’t really be happy out there.  Plus, the Tigers will still have chances to grab more relief help through another trade (or maybe this is where Gagne comes into the picture, but the Tigers would then need to add a decent near-ready outfield prospect – not quite Cameron Maybin, though).

So it comes down to this – are the Tigers willing to part with two pitchers who would never be more than 3rd or 4th in their starting rotation (that’s how loaded they are with starting pitching) to have a terrific shot at possibly two World Series titles?

I was in Detroit for my grandfather’s funeral last fall when the Tigers were making their post-season run.  In fact, my family and I visited Comerica Park the afternoon of October 14th.  Game 4 of the ALCS was scheduled that night, and downtown Detroit was already abuzz by late morning.  Later that evening, I was watching the game at a bar playing quarter video poker in the MotorCity Casino while waiting for a seat at a Texas Hold ‘Em table when Magglio Ordonez hit his 3-run walk-off homer to complete the sweep of the A’s and send the Tigers to the World Series.  The place went nuts.  The city went nuts (but remarkably no cars were burned that night). 

Detroit’s had a taste of what championship baseball feels like, and that can be addictive.  I think they want to complete the worst to World Champions fairytale that the Cardinals rudely interrupted last year.  And I think they may want two bites at that apple.  With Tex adding switch-hitting power and a solid average to their lineup and Gold Glove defense at first base, I think the Tigers do the deal, and win at least one World Series because of it.

And, don’t discount the fact that Scott Boras, Teixeira’s agent, would probably love to see this deal happen.  As most other contenders have first base covered, getting Tex probably the best opportunity available for him to ride in and make significant contributions to one or two championships would make his value skyrocket by his free agent winter in ‘09 when the Yankees would be primed to snatch him up at a ridiculous price.  (I don’t see the Yankees having what it would take to get Tex this season – and I don’t think Tex is ready to play in New York yet.)  As much power as Boras weilds, his backdoor lobbying for this deal could help make it happen.

Meanwhile, the Rangers get two guys who may not headline, but could certainly anchor their rotation as at least real #2 and #3 pitchers.  And with lots of free agent outfielders on the market this winter (Torri Hunter – having a career year in his FA season and on his way to a 7th straight Gold Glove - should be taming The Ballpark’s centerfield next season), the Rangers could turn things around quickly.

P.S.  As the Tigers are my second favorite team and Tex is a favorite player of mine, this would thrill me on several levels.  My favorite team gets back on track, while my second favorite team could win a ring or two with the help of a good guy in Tex who deserves better than to languish with the bottom-dwelling Rangers.  And who knows, maybe we’ll have a new owner by 2009 who would be willing to pay to get Tex back here to help charge up the Rangers return to contention!

Teixeira Traded to Tigers!

A few weeks after Mark Teixeira returns from the DL and, hopefully, gets into form again quickly to prove his value hasn’t slipped, the title of this post should become a real sports pages headline.

After thinking long and hard, and researching who’s out there, what team(s) could benefit most from adding Teixeira and who can offer what the Rangers must get in return for Tex, Detroit looks to be the most likely destination. 

Consider what the Tigers have to gain.  By adding Teixeira – a significant upgrade offensively and defensively compared to Sean Casey – to their already potent lineup, they could continue to out slug anybody in baseball. 

They already rank first in the majors in almost every major offensive statistic.  But that is being driven by a career, MVP-pace season from Maglio Ordonez, career years from Placido Polonco and Omar Infante, and a power resurgance from Gary Sheffield.  One or two of those guys are bound to cool off – or worse, get hurt – for at least some stretch of the season.  And in the hyper-competitive AL Central, a couple of slumps could send the Tigers into third place and out of the playoffs in no time flat.

On the mound, there’s no organization with more major-league proven talent for starting pitchers.  Verlander and Bonderman will headline their rotation for years to come.  And with Kenny Rogers getting close to returning, if he’s just 75% as good as last year, then Chad Durbin and Mike Maroth (both pitching well this season) with continue to thrive in the 4 and 5 spots.  That sends Nate Robertson and his tired arm to the Tigers bullpen for long relief and spot starts. 

With Rogers back and Teixeira providing added insurance against a slump or two sending the Tigers offense sputtering out of contention, the Tigers would be favored to win the Central, return to, and likely win the World Series this season.  And they’d still have Tex next year to make a run in ‘08 to then be the first team to repeat since the 2000 Yankees.  That’s how good the Tigers could be, and that’s what’s on the table for them if they grab Teixeira.

So what do the Rangers get in return?  A chance to climb out of the celler of MLB and the AL West – fast.  More on that tomorrow…

Ron Washington May Be Getting Torched, But Don’t Forget This Is Hicks’ Mess

According to recent reports, Ron Washington – a supposedly “players” manager – has lost the confidence and respect of key members of the Texas Rangers roster.  Yes, Ron has done some things wrong.  He’s a rookie manager, and he’ll make rookie manager mistakes.  But when handed a team that:

1. Lacks a real #1, much less a true ace, pitcher in the rotation,
2. Has 3 unproven starters and 2 who are not intimidating, 
3. Is missing an anchor in the lineup to protect Teixeira,
4. Is relying on a rookie catcher who can’t hit to call games,
5. Has a terrible outfield,
6. Lacks any tradition of excellence or winning,
7. Udergoes change in personnel more often than changes in Texas weather, and most importantly…
8. Knows without a doubt after watching several free agents leave and no high caliber free agents get signed that OWNERSHIP IS NOT COMMITTED TO WINNING,

any manager is set up to fail.

Ten years ago, this month, Tom Hicks became the owner of the Rangers.  Since then, the organization has deteriorated from making the playoffs 3 out of 3 years to an embarrassment and a national laughing stock across all of baseball.  So before anyone starts calling for Ron Washington’s head, let’s consider who is to blame for the current state of the team (in decending order of who’s at fault):

1. Tom Hicks
2. Tom Hicks
3. Tom Hicks
4. Tom Hicks
5. Tom Hicks
6. Tom Hicks
7. Tom Hicks
8. Jon Daniels
9. John Hart
10. The Red Dot (from The Dot Race)

What’s the Red Dot to blame for?  Nothing really, but certainly more than Ron Washington.

I’ve shared plenty of thoughts in previous posts (click on Tom Hicks to the right for the most recent posts) about why Tom Hicks is the bane of the Texas Rangers and a walking insult to all Rangers fans and players.  He’s disengenuous.  He’s bi-polar as an owner.  He thinks the Angels are the Rangers “partners” of all things.  He’s the worst owner in baseball, and he’s got to go if this team is to have a chance of turning around.

So let Nolan Ryan buy the team, and then take some notes from the Tigers and Mark Cuban about how to turn a team around.